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Concinnati Reds Out with the old...Shawn Estes (fa), Joey Hamilton (fa), Brian Moehler (fa), Todd Walker (tr), Elmer Dessens (tr)
And in with the new...Paul Wilson (fa), Felipe Lopez (tr)
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Cincinnati Reds FBR's 2003 Fantasy Draft Package:
Projections, Weekly In-Season Fantasy Emails!

As the league's biggest underachievers in '01, the Reds looked to rebound to their '00 level, when they won 85 games.  Backed by the impactful presence of young sluggers Adam Dunn and Austin Kearns, they stood atop the NL Central for 51 days before August 6 and were 2 games out on August 11 before it fell apart.  Led by Dunn's second half slump, the rotation faltered as well as some key components to the bullpen such as the usually reliable set-up man, Scott Sullivan.  By the end of the season the wheels had fallen off, resulting in 78-84 record.  With general manager Pat Gillick never one to idle by the wayside, the Reds once again were active in the market, but that activity was the loss of two of their most consistent players.  While Todd Walker was shipped to Boston for prized pitching prospect Josh Thigpen as well as a top third base prospect, Elmer Dessens was dealt to Arizona in a 3-way trade that netted them Felipe Lopez.  To offset the loss of Walker, 25/25 hitter Aaron Boone will slide over to the pivot while rookie Brandon Larson will settle in at the hot corner.  While the old school veterans are returning, there are questions surrounding each of them, beginning with the power outage in Sean Casey's bat.  After a successful transition at the end of the season to the rotation, former closer Danny Graves will continue to start as inning eater Scott Williamson steps in as closer.

  Projected Lineup:
SS Barry Larkin
2BAaron Boone
CFKen Griffey Jr
RFAdam Dunn
LFAustin Kearns
1BSean Casey
3BBrandon Larson
CJason Larue
  Projected Rotation:
Danny Graves
Jimmy Haynes
Ryan Dempster
Paul Wilson
Harnisch/Anderson/Acevedo
  Projected Bullpen:
Scott Williamson-Closer
Scott Sullivan
Bruce Chen
Gabe White
John Riedling
Chris Reitsma

Fantasy Forces:
RF-Adam Dunn (23)-
While he proved that his generous homerun rate in '01 was no fluke, Dunn's maturity was fully exposed during a horrendous second half slump that resulted in a sub-mendozan .190 average.  An extremely patient hitter, Dunn showed weaknesses with the inside part of the plate and often put himself in holes after watching hittable pitches go by early in the count.  As he develops he will be more willing to swing early and is a future homerun champ in the making while developing all other areas as well.

Better Days Ahead:
3B-Brandon Larson (26)-
Larson's star has been relit after a tremendous half season at Louisville last year.  On the heals of 25 homeruns in 80 games and an impressive September stint with the Reds, the former shortstop will settle into the primary third base role in Cincy this summer.  He also can play left, first and second making his stay even more likely and is the Reds top hitting prospect at the moment.  
LF-Austin Kearns (22)- After salivating over Dunn's power a year earlier, the Reds faithful were treated to another glimpse of the future as Kearns led all rookies in hitting while demonstrating some of his raw power potential.  A favorite in the ROY race, he went down with a hamstring injury in August that knocked him out with five weeks left.  The Reds traded Encarnacion to make room for Kearns and he is an immediate candidate for a batting title with blossoming production across the board.

Risky Business:
CF-Ken Griffey Jr (33)-
  Not so long ago, Grumpy was the creme de la creme of baseball, a sure HOFer on his way to Aaron's homerun mark but that was then, this is now.  Wrapped up in his own media creation, Griff finished last to Kearns, Dunn and Juan Encarnacion in a local wish list poll and recently learned of his manager's wishes to dump him on San Diego.  With Encarnacion out of the picture Griffey appears to be planted in Cincy but what affect his continued bashing has will determine his success.  Always an injury risk, his mopey approach to his current situation may be the poison that ails all.  
1B-Sean Casey (28)-  Griffey is not the only Red losing favor in Cincy; Casey continued to see his once moderate homerun totals dwindle to single digits while seeing his average plummet with it.  Once regarded as a future batting champ with 30-HR potential, the Reds would take .285/15 this year but will surely dump the high-priced Casey the first shot they get.  The hitting should return to his previous levels but the power may be gone, a fault of Casey's to refuse to sacrifice any part of his average.

Supporting Cast:
2B-Aaron Boone (30)-
  Bust out seasons have run in the family of late and as the case with brother Bret, Aaron's 02 season will likely be the apex of his career.  In a full slate of games, Boone showed more power and activity on the basepaths than he had in any of his previous 8 seasons as a professional and considering he is now on the down side of 30, any increases seem highly unlikely.  Add to this a switch to second and anything close seems like a blessing.
C-Jason Larue (29)-  Once considered to be a top catching prospect, Larue has quietly turned into a decent field, good pop backstop with little potential beyond his current level.  He has little patience and poor pitch selection and with younger options on the horizon, he could land somewhere else before too long.  A quality player in the right situation, his weaknesses are vastly exposed in the Reds lineup.
SP-Jimmy Haynes (30)-
  As the old saying goes, location, location, location.  A year removed from 17 losses, Haynes bolted from Milwaukee and racked up a career best 15 wins, showing some of the potential the Athletics became impatient waiting to come out.  With a wide repertoire of pitches, Haynes success came with a commitment to working off his fastballs but control problems are always in the shadows.
SP-Ryan Dempster (25)- After years of inconsistency, Dempster finally settled on one side of the fence; unfortunately it was the wrong side.  Armed with potent stuff but the inability to harness it, Dempster continues to lag behind in development.  Just 25, he has already thrown 848 innings and is a prime candidate for a major injury at some point.  
SP-Paul Wilson (30)-  From where Dempster appears headed Wilson has just returned. A nine-year veteran of professional baseball, he cracked the 30 start mark for the first time in his career and the first time over 25 since he was a Mets' minor leaguer in '96.  While he will likely be a valuable inning eater his third year off major surgery, Wilson's window has closed and he is a quality 3-4 pitcher at best.    
SP-Danny Graves (28)- Graves saved 121 games for the Reds the last five years but finally made the long-rumored move to the rotation and the results were as expected.  In his first four starts since a spot role with Buffalo in the Indians org in '97, Graves was highly effective and has the versatility in his pitches to continue on the same path.  Though he won't equal Derek Lowe's output last year, Graves should be one of the top Reds pitchers this year. 
CL-Scott Williamson (27)-  Graves move to the rotation opens the door for Williamson, a former starter, to move into the closer role aptly suited for him.  With an explosive fastball and a slider that continues to crawl back after injuries, Williamson has all the makings of being a quality stopper including his mental approach.  He should thrive in his new role.

Past Their Prime:
SS-Barry Larkin (38)-
  After a long successful career, the aging Larkin continues to hobble through the latter stages sans any relief in sight for the Reds.  With the acquisition of Lopez, the Reds now have the guy they feel will take over.  How soon it happens depends on his early season production but don't bank on Larkin being the primary shortstop for long.

The Final Cut:
Despite the presence of two of the league's premier young outfielders, the Reds are looking at another season of offensive shortcomings.  Griffey could bash forty homeruns or five,  while the willingness to keep Larkin and Larue in the mix leaves at least 3 questions, all up the middle.  Add to this a rookie at third and Casey's uncertain future at first and the only thing left is Boone, who appears unlikely to approach his '02 totals.  Many of the question marks hold high value on the market and Gillick may not be done dealing.  With the offense in a whirlwind, the rotation will have to hold up but Dempsey and Haynes are wavering in their continued development while Graves and Wilson appear to be the only certain starters.  Lastly, it may be time to look at the leader of their troops, Bob Boone.  Boone took over following the Red's 85-win '00 season and has led them to 144 wins the two years since.  While there were sure underachievers littering the roster, Boone has never finished over .500 in seven seasons as a manager, covering the bigs and Triple A.  Many questioned his dugout command with the Royals and that will be the first place they look should the Reds continue their slide from last year.


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