Fantasy Baseball Realm Bobble Head Dolls
Out with the old...
Daryle Ward (tr), Nelson Cruz (tr), Dave Mlicki (fa), Tom Gordon (fa), Mark Loretta (fa)
And in with the new...
Jeff Kent (fa), Brian Moehler (fa), Jesus Sanchez (fa)
Houston Astros Click here for MLB Bobble Head Mania
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Houston Astros FBR's 2003 Fantasy Draft Package:
Projections, Rookies, Weekly In-Season Fantasy Emails!

The Astros fired Larry Dierker after five fruitless first place finishes and while the addition of Jimy Williams brought different results, they weren't the ones Houston fans had hoped for.  Slow to get going, they stood at 41-45 at the break before making a push that left them in second place, just missing a playoff spot.  With Lance Berkman, Roy Oswalt and Jeff Bagwell leading the way, the lack of steady production from the back of the rotation led to the shortcomings.  Rather than cater to their weaknesses, however, feeling the rotation merely needed to gain more experience, the Astros threw money at their strengths while killing two birds with one expensive stone.  In a move that forces hard-nosed Craig Biggio to center, the Astros signed dangerous pivot Jeff Kent to a 2 year contract, creating perhaps the most potent 2-3-4-5 hitter combination in the game.  Aside from landing the top run producer, they bolstered their rotation by adding steady veteran Brian Moehler to the mix, a move which became vital when Carlos Hernandez was lost for the entire '03 season to surgery.  While Moehler settles into the fourth spot, the 1-2 punch of Oswalt and Wade Miller will once again lead the charge while lights-out relievers Billy Wagner and Octavio Dotel will continue to slam doors in hitter faces.

  Projected Lineup:
SS Julio Lugo
CFCraig Biggio
1BJeff Bagwell
LFLance Berkman
2BJeff Kent
RFHidalgo/Lane
3BBlum/Ensberg
CBrad Ausmus
  Projected Rotation:
Roy Oswalt
Wade Miller
Shane Reynolds
Brian Moehler
Redding/Sanchez/Saarloos/Munro
  Projected Bullpen:
Billy Wagner-Closer
Octavio Dotel
Brandon Puffer
Ricky Stone

Fantasy Forces:
2B-Jeff Kent (35)
-  The prospect of playing in offense friendly Minute Maid Field must have Kent drooling after only mustering 11 HRs last year at home in Pac Bell (as opposed to 26 on the road). So far, Kent has shown no signs of slowing down, and hitting behind the three B's should allow him once again to finish right near the top of most offensive categories for all second basemen.
1B-Jeff Bagwell (34)
-  Bagwell continues to be one of the game's premier forces at the plate, but hasn't seemed to recover from shoulder surgery over a year ago.  He is a career .302 hitter and will once again be a huge run producer, but until his shoulder heals he'll have to settle for less than 40 homeruns and his days as a basestealer are winding down.  
LF-Lance Berkman (27)-  Following his .331 season a year earlier, Berkman took a hit in his average but displayed his tremendous power potential as he became just the fifth switch-hitter to hit 40 homeruns.  Were it not for a slowdown after the break he would have topped 50.  Not only is an MVP in his future, but he is a legitimate triple crown threat on a yearly basis and should be considered one of the most valuable hitters in the game. 
SP-Roy Oswalt (25)-  After a sneak preview in '01, Oswalt firmly established himself among the best with a near Cy Young sophomore season.   Ranking among the league leaders in nearly every category, the dominating righty tamed everything from the league's top hitters to then-Enron itself, where he produced the NL's 6th lowest home ERA.  While it seems as if he would take a back seat to the big boys in Arizona, the offense in Houston makes Oswalt the NL Cy Young favorite.  
CL-Billy Wagner (31)-  Not only do the Astros have arguably the best hitter and pitcher in the game, they may also have the two toughest players.  While Biggio's grit has been respected for years, Wagner's return from being smashed in the face is hardly the stuff of the weak.  Instead of cowering in the face of fear, Billy the Kid came back with a vengeance, his fastball once again topping triple digits.  With stellar control and the pitching in front of him, Wagner should be on the cusp of 40 saves again.  
SP-Wade Miller (26)-  Despite missing nearly two months with a pinched nerve in his neck, Miller showed he is to be regarded as one of the top #2 pitchers in the game.  Comfortably nestled behind Oswalt, Miller finished second in winning percentage while going 11-1 after the break.  The sky is the limit but as long as he is on a team with Oswalt, Miller will play second fiddle.

Better Days Ahead:
OF-Jason Lane (26)-
  With Hidalgo's career swirling down the drain, Lane's stock continues to rise.  While versatile and speedy, the righty has the potential to be a steady .290/30 hitter.  At 26, the Astros will give him every chance to win the right field job from the under achieving, over-paid Hidalgo.  Should he start, he is a prime NL ROY candidate.  
P-Kirk Saarloos (23)-  One of the many young pitchers Houston has produced of late, Saarloos was called on prematurely after success at Double A and paid for it with a return trip to the minors.  Upon a recall, he was more effective but surely his time is not the immediate future.  He will be given a shot at the rotation, but Williams has stated he is likely to work out of the pen to start the season.

 

Supporting Cast:
SS-Julio Lugo (27)-
  His tenure as starting shortstop is due more to the lack of development by the one-time heir, Adam Everett than to anything that Lugo has done.  While being a steady fielder with moderate power and speed, he is extremely impatient and any success he does have, seems to be the result of his home stadium.  For now he is the leadoff hitter but only until something better comes along.
RP-Octavio Dotel (29)-  Finally rid of the desire to start, Dotel is perhaps the most valuable reliever in the game who is not a closer.  His years of long relief and starting allow him to put in heavy workloads while the results are second to none.  His strikeouts to innings ratio is higher than nearly anyone and he provides periodical wins as well as a few saves.  His future is as a closer, but that spot is well occupied at the moment. 
3B-Geoff Blum (29)-  At the moment the switch-hitting Blum is the lesser of two evils at the hot corner.  Struggling to find a steady bat since Ken Caminiti's departure, Blum steps in as another prospect fails to pan out.  With steady if unimpressive all-around production, the job is Blum's to lose but don't expect any miracles.
SP-Brian Moehler (31)-  Signed as a free agent, Moehler's value rose when Hernandez went down for the entire '03 season.  A proto-typical blue collar pitcher, he has average stuff with less than stellar command who's veteranship is his biggest asset.  While there seems to always be a place for someone of his caliber, Moehler's stay in the rotation should be temporary. 
C Brad Ausmus (33)- Ausmus is in the lineup for one reason, his glovework behind the plate.  While collecting his second straight Gold Glove award, his experience was invaluable to the steady stream of young pitchers coming through Houston.  Minimal production but a steady hand.
SP-Tim Redding (25)-  While fellow sophomore Oswalt was contending for a Cy Young, Redding was struggling to hold a spot in the rotation.  He showed flashes of his top-of-the-order talent but still has to battle control problems while harnessing his vast repertoire.  He is the favorite for the fifth spot in the rotation heading into camp.

Risky Business:
SP-Shane Reynolds (35)-
  Once one of the steadier pitchers in the game, Reynolds was shut down for the season in June with an ailing back.  He has now been on the disabled list the last three years after remaining relatively injury-free his first 8 years.  At 35, it will be tougher and tougher to come back and although he opens as the #3, his depleting health and the youngsters coming up will eventually force him lower in the rotation or out of town.
RF-Richard Hidalgo (27)-  Since exploding onto the season in '00 and fooling the Astros into giving him a hefty contract, Hidalgo has done essentially nothing and last year was finally benched for his efforts.  While questions are raised as to his conditioning and focus, he is anemic versus righties and not nearly as selective as he needs to be.  With Jason Lane on the horizon, Hidalgo's starting job is on a day-to-day basis.

Past Their Prime:
CF-Craig Biggio (37)-
  Biggio proved how tough he was by coming back from knee surgery successfully, but he still isn't the player he was prior to the injury.  A little slower afoot and some speed lost in his bat, his shift to center field will keep him in Houston.  Although he could fill the leadoff spot, he is best suited for #2 and, while continuing to put up solid numbers, his days are winding down.

The Final Cut:
On paper the Astros are as complete as any in the NL Central but on the field the results may be different.  Oswalt is the Cy Young favorite and Berkman is a clear batting title waiting to happen, but questions continue to hound the back half of the rotation.  With explosive arms seemingly growing on trees in Houston, if the front two can sustain, Williams and Ausmus can only hope the young arms keep maturing and the veterans of the rotation, Reynolds and Moehler hold up over the course of the season.  If the pieces fall into place, Houston will be very tough to beat, leaving them the front-runners in a highly competitive division.

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